The Eagles are fresh off another thrilling win vs. a good team, but it’s not enough to make them favorites for a rematch of the NFC Championship Game this upcoming Sunday.
Most books have San Francisco as -2.5 point favorites vs. the Eagles in Philly, a fairly notable line considering the Eagles have the best record (10-1) in the NFL. They are also coming off wins vs. the Cowboys, Chiefs and Bills.
That said, the argument for the 49ers being favored is fairly straightforward. San Francisco is absolutely rolling after their three-game blip before the bye week. They recently destroyed both the Jaguars and Seahawks away from home, and also blew out the Cowboys earlier in the year, a team the Eagles just squeaked by.
The underlying stats also favor the Niners. San Francisco’s +140 point-differential is more than two times better than Philly’s at +64. Based on the catch-all DVOA metric, the 49ers are ranked as the second-best team in the league, while the Eagles sit at eighth. The Eagles also have come from behind to win five games, an indicator that although they are pulling wins out, they are showing inconsistency throughout 60 minutes.
The last time these two teams faced it was hardly a game. Brock Purdy was knocked out with an injury in the first quarter, and backup quarterback Josh Johnson was knocked out before halftime. That left the 49ers without a QB who could throw, and led to a 31-7 blowout by the Eagles.
Now, the 49ers have a chance at revenge, and according to Vegas, they are going to get it.