The first preseason game is, thankfully, in the rearview. It was a rough outing for Trey Lance and the backup offensive line, leaving the 49ers’ brass with a host of questions as to how they’ll handle their roster crunch.
On August 29, at 1 p.m., NFL teams will cut down their rosters from 90 to 53.
Quarterback
In (3): Brock Purdy, Sam Darnold, Brandon Allen
Out (1): Trey Lance
Confidence in prediction: 50 percent (if there’s a compelling Lance trade offer, I think the 49ers take it)
This is not necessarily an indictment of Trey Lance. This is just the wrong team for him.
Lance needs reps. He improves the longer he’s on the field. But the 49ers cannot provide him those reps, and the other two quarterbacks behind Brock Purdy are experienced. They looked miles more comfortable than Lance did in the preseason opener.
Sam Darnold is ahead of Lance in the pecking order at this stage, and it’s hard to imagine that changing. So, yes, you could keep him as your third-string quarterback. But that doesn’t benefit anyone, especially not Lance.
I think, ultimately, Lance will be dealt for a conditional pick, somewhere in rounds three through five (maybe dependent on how his next performance goes) after the final preseason game.
Trading him would save the 49ers $3.76 million this season. It doesn’t matter, at this point, what they spent to trade up for him. Any remotely decent pick and cap savings are far more useful to this team right now than a third-string quarterback who Kyle Shanahan would feel less confident in than Brandon Allen, who was without fault against the Raiders.
Backfield
In (5): Kyle Juszczyk, Christian McCaffrey, Elijah Mitchell, Ty Davis-Price, Jordan Mason
Out (3): Jeremy McNichols, Khalan Laborn, Jack Colletto
Confidence in prediction: 99 percent
It’s hard to imagine any scenario in which these aren’t the running backs the 49ers retain. Jack Colletto is the only name on the outside looking in who sparks intrigue, potentially as a blocking tight end. But he hasn’t properly repped there, and there are too many names in the tight end room for that to be likely.
Tight end
In (4): George Kittle, Charlie Woerner, Ross Dwelley, Brayden Willis
Out (2): Cam Latu, Troy Fumagalli
Confidence in prediction: 5 percent
This room is an absolute mess. You would think that spending a third-round pick on a tight end would provide a player capable of beating out Charlie Woerner or Ross Dwelley: players who were behind the still-unsigned Tyler Kroft in the depth chart last season.
But Cameron Latu has been a disaster. He’s made constant mistakes, dropping passes and fumbling balls left and right, while also picking up penalties. Unless he shows something significant, he should be cut. That is, unless the 49ers feel like he’ll come around over the course of the season and they can stash Brayden Willis and/or Ross Dwelley on the practice squad.
SF has long liked both Woerner and Dwelley (both very tight with George Kittle) though. Woerner is the clear TE2 on this team.
I’d argue the smartest group would be Kittle, Woerner, Willis and Fumagalli. Fumagalli looked solid in the first preseason game, especially as a blocker, while Willis is the most impressive receiving tight end outside of Kittle. Dwelley has excellent hands but nonexistent blocking ability and limited athleticism.
That said, it’s hard to see a route where Fumagalli (not a rookie draft pick, and not a mainstay) makes the team, and Latu might just be too much of an investment to be cut outright.
Wide receiver
In (6): Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, Jauan Jennings, Danny Gray, Ray-Ray McCloud, Ronnie Bell
Out (5): Willie Snead IV, Chris Conley, Isaiah Winstead, Tay Martin, Dazz Newsome
Confidence in prediction: 60 percent
Ray-Ray McCloud’s injury makes almost certain that the 49ers will keep at least six wide receivers. The first five names on the list are just about locks.
Outside of them, there’s Ronnie Bell, Willie Snead IV and Chris Conley as the main contenders for the final spot.
It all depends on the flavor the 49ers are looking for. Conley is 6-foot-3-inch veteran who’s shown capability in training camp and the preseason opener. If they want a reliable target outside of the top three, Conley could make plenty of sense.
Snead is also in that veteran mold, and has shown himself to be a fantastic blocker. He’s got more than a year in the system now, and could slot right in.
But Bell is promising. He had one unforgivable drop that became an interception and a near pick-six, but he showed he’s fearless (maybe a little too fearless) on punt returns, and has otherwise been sure-handed when he keeps his eye on the ball.
He made three catches for 53 yards and took a handoff that should’ve seen him stuffed. Instead, he channeled his inner Deebo Samuel and bounced off a couple tackles for an outrageous first down. He’s shown a lot so far, and if he continues that trajectory — especially considering his return ability — he seems like he’d be the slight the favorite.
Offensive line
In (7): Trent Williams, Aaron Banks, Jake Brendel, Spencer Burford, Colton McKivitz, Matt Pryor, Jon Feliciano
Out (9): Jaylon Moore, Jason Poe, Nick Zakelj, Ilm Manning, Corey Luciano, Keith Ismael, Joey Fisher, Leroy Watson IV, Alfredo Gutierrez
Confidence in prediction: 70 percent
There’s the starting five, then two capable veterans in Matt Pryor and Jon Feliciano. Then there’s the muddled mess that is everyone else.
Nick Zakelj made the roster last season, but he got whooped on Sunday. Jaylon Moore has not been impressive, and Jason Poe has shown flashes of good and bad. There’s no one in the backup group that has shown enough to warrant holding a roster spot.
There are myriad other positions with far more talent. That said, the 49ers might want an extra offensive lineman here, and keep someone like Zakelj around. But no one has been convincing, and it’s hard to think other teams will be clamoring too much to grab their scraps at this position group.
Defensive line
In (10): Nick Bosa, Arik Armstead, Javon Hargrave, Clelin Ferrell, Drake Jackson, Kevin Givens, T.Y. McGill, Kerry Hyder Jr., Javon Kinlaw, Robert Beal Jr.
Out (7): Austin Bryant, Kalia Davis, Spencer Waege, Alex Barrett, Taco Charlton, Marlon Davidson, Breeland Speaks
IR (1): Darryl Johnson
Confidence in prediction: 40 percent
This is a little tricky, mainly with the last two spots. Nick Bosa, Arik Armstead, Javon Hargrave, Clelin Ferrell and Drake Jackson are roster locks. It would be a shock to see either Kevin Givens or T.Y. McGill not make the team, and Kerry Hyder Jr. is sort of a swiss army knife veteran who should be kept, too.
That leaves two spots. Kalia Davis probably won’t make the team because he hasn’t been healthy enough, but when he’s been on the field, he’s flashed a stout, strong frame on the interior.
So first, it’s a question of whether the 49ers keep Javon Kinlaw. Given that he’s finally healthy, and there hasn’t been another interior player who’s been showing off enough to convincingly steal his spot, I’d expect he is retained. The 49ers don’t save any money by cutting him, so why not keep him?
That leaves Austin Bryant versus Robert Beal Jr. And maybe it’s a two-spot competition with Hyder Jr.’s spot less certain. But Hyder Jr. has proved himself reliable.
Bryant has an absurdly long, intriguing frame, but has struggled to convert that into results. Beal has a similar body type, but he’s been hurt for most of camp.
It begs the question as to who the 49ers value more, or at least who they feel more confident getting to the practice squad. This one feels like a total toss-up, but if Beal Jr. gets back healthy and plays in the next two preseason games, or at least the final one, I’d favor him.
Linebackers
In (5): Fred Warner, Dre Greenlaw, Oren Burks, Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles, Marcelino McCrary-Ball
Out (4): Jalen Graham, Dee Winters, Curtis Robinson, Kyahva Tezino
Confidence in prediction: 20 percent
This one is tough. Fred Warner are Dre Greenlaw are obvious. Oren Burks will almost certainly be on the roster, and Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles is well-liked, especially on special teams, and has made a few impressive plays. Marcelino McCrary-Ball, though, has been the most impressive linebacker not named Warner and Greenlaw. He’s ferocious, athletic, and fearless, and has to be on this roster.
The question, though, is whether San Francisco keeps a sixth linebacker. They kept Robinson, stashed him on IR, then returned him and later cut him last season. But Robinson is now in competition with their late-round picks in Dee Winters and Jalen Graham. Winters is a more instinctual ball tracker, while Graham has a bigger frame and can range from sideline to sideline. Kyahva Tezino has almost no chance to make the roster, but he’s made a few solid tackles and was the second-highest tackler in the USFL.
My logic here is that the 49ers like pretty much all of the linebackers they’d cut. So, even if one or two are snapped up, they can stash the remaining players on their practice squad, and potentially add them immediately to the 53-man roster after McCloud goes on injured reserve.
Maybe they don’t want to take that risk, because teams frequently steal their undrafted, cut linebackers. You could argue that if you like all your linebackers, you should try and hold onto as many as possible.
This also depends on the next position group. If the 49ers go with one fewer corner, they should take an additional linebacker. Graham, given his athleticism and frame, might be the best option as the sixth backer.
Corners
In (6): Charvarius Ward, Deommodore Lenoir, Isaiah Oliver, Ambry Thomas, Samuel Womack III, D’Shawn Jamison
Out (3): Tre Swilling, Qwuantrezz Knight, A.J. Parker
NFI (1): Darrell Luter Jr.
Confidence in prediction: 30 percent
The first four players on this list are just about locks. The real question is whether they should hold onto both Samuel Womack III and D’Shawn Jamison. Qwuantrezz Knight has also made some nice plays, but I’m not sure it’s been enough.
Womack’s solid involvement and tackling ability would make it a bit surprising if he was cut. But Jamison has shown stunning footwork and returning talent. That leads me to believe that both will make the roster, especially as McCloud recovers on injured reserve.
Safeties
In (4): Talanoa Hufanga, Tashaun Gipson Sr., Ji’Ayir Brown, George Odum
Out (2): Myles Hartsfield, Tayler Hawkins
Confidence in prediction: 80 percent
Unless Myles Hartsfield has been more impressive behind closed doors than in his time in front of media this camp, it’s hard to see why he would warrant making the roster.
The 49ers have plenty of special teams options, and their four-player safety group is stellar. This group seems settled.
Special teams
In (3): Taybor Pepper, Mitch Wishnowsky, Jake Moody
Out (1): Zane Gonzalez
Confidence in prediction: 95 percent
Don’t panic about Jake Moody just yet. He’s looked fantastic in camp, and was nails in high-pressure games at Michigan. Now, if he can’t make a kick in either of these next two games, there might be a little bit of sweating to do.
